The news media has been a buzz with news of Cyril Ramaphosa’s nomination by a Cape Town based ANC branch for the ANC presidency. Tokyo Sexwale is also nominated bringing the number of nominations to 4, including Jacob Zuma and Thabo Mbeki. A few weeks ago InTheNews.co.za asked the question Who is Your President? The writer said that Zuma was the only serious candidate for the ANC presidency. The writer went as far as calling the other front runners ‘the rest’. It was Zuma and ‘the rest’. So who are ‘the rest’? Why are they not serious contenders? Is it because the dark horses could just be smoke screens? Smoke screens to give an illusion of democratic process?

I am inclined to think that the inclusion of Sexwale and Ramaphosa in this race is just a smoke screen. I don’t think they are serious contenders for the ANC Presidency. I think Thabo Mbeki is the only serious threat to Zuma and even that maybe a long shot especially when it comes to being National President. The rules still remain that a president is only allowed two terms. Mbeki is in the twilight of his second term. Barring a constitutional change, Mbeki will end his term as National President next year. It maybe safe to say that Zuma may have an easy journey to the Union Buildings just like Mandela and Mbeki.

The news media paints a picture of a dangerous power struggle within the ANC. I do not believe that. The ANC has been a community first. It has never been about one person. Through out its history decisions have been made by a group and not one person. A power struggle is divisive and the ANC can’t afford to be divided. It has over two thirds of parliament and controls all but one city in the country. A power struggle would weaken the ANC and I think its brains trust would not allow for that. The news of other nominations for the presidency is just to appease the public. Its just to make it look it like everyone has a chance to run and rule the ANC. Unfortunately history tells another story. Mbeki himself had a somewhat easy path to the presidency. No one man or woman can define the ANC. Mandela was the face for a long time but there where others like Tambo and Sisulu who ran the party behind the scenes.

What cements my point is the fact that Ramaphosa’s nomination came from a Cape Town branch. Cape Town is DA territory. So I find it strange that the Ramaphosa nomination did not come from other more high profile branches. I don’t think Ramaphosa has a chance. I think it’s wishful thinking. Unfortunately, he may be a good leader but we will never know. The ANC has its own ways and processes of assessing who is best to lead them.

The Dark Horses are just smoke screens.